Monday, June 4, 2012. Chaos and violence continue, Baghdad is slammed
with a bombing, the political crisis continues, Moqtada al-Sadr makes a
statement, and more.
If someone had never heard of Michael Rubin and you told them about him,
they'd probably laugh and assume you were attempting to be amusing.
Michael Rubin does actually exist and, sadly, he's 100% serious. At Commentary, Rubin yet again plays his the-sky-is-falling card.
He's played it so many times that you have to wonder if maybe there
aren't actually pigeons in the trees around his home. Most
dramatically, he played the sky is falling card when he screamed for war
on that 'great threat' to the US, Iraq. Now days, he's convinced
there's a Kurdish threat to the United States, specifically, the Kurds
who are part of the Kurdistan Regional Government. This leads to his
psychotic visions of the KRG as "Iran's Trojan Horse."
And he constructs a case that would be very convincing if you didn't pay attention.
Rubin wants you to know that a recent interviw had a figure which
surprised him "70 percent of Iran's Iraq trade is with Kurdistan." He
then tosses out an excerpt, then he's back, "While jouranlists have
reported on Kurdistan Regional Government oil smuggling to Iran, the
proportion cited by Hosseini surprised me, so I check the figured
[sic] with the Iraqi embassy in Washington; they confirmed the 70
percent."
He can't seriously be that dumb. He can be dumb enough to try to fool
you, right? But not dumb enough to really think that the 70% figure is
smuggled oil?
Or that the US embassy has a solid number for any alleged smuggled oil?
The whole point of a smuggled good is that it's not officially
tracked. Rubin does get that, right?
I'm not sure. His link on the 70% goes to this Fars News Agency report --
usually seen as Iranian state press (controlled press) -- and, no,
there article on "trade ties" is not about smuggled oil.
Rubin is currently humping the bed at night in his sleep while dreaming
of war on Syria and Iran. Sometimes people will wonder if the US liars
and fools who pimped the Iraq War learned a damn thing? Michael Rubin
is proof positive that, while they continue to have sticky sheets, the
boys didn't learn a damn thing.
I do agree with him that the US government and the Kurdistan Regional
Government are as far apart currently as they have ever been. I
disagree that this is because most US service members were pulled out of
Iraq last December. The reason that the KRG and the US have problems
currently is because the US put together the Erbil Agreement and vouched
for it and when Nouri al-Maliki trashed it after it allowed him a
second term, the US government refused to stand by the agreement.
That's why there are problems between the two and those problems were in
place before November of 2011. So there's no need to pretend that the
December drawdown created it. And Rubin's generally smarter than he
lets on, so he may be aware of that and may be trying to get the US to
mend fences by spreading rumors that Tehran and Erbil are locked in an
embrace? It certainly wouldn't be the first time that Rubin 'spun'
reality in an attempt to force the US government to do what he
desired.
Rubin can take comfort in the fact that he's not the biggest idiot pundit today. That's Carl Davidson explaining to Matthew Rothschild (Progressive Radio)
how the US Communist Party split over Gorbachev and his group ended up
being the Committee of Correspondence for Democracy and Socialism ("It
started as a split off the Communist Party. They rebelled over the, you
know, Gorbachev question [. . .].")
Even funnier than that is Carl bragging about how he and tired Marilyn
Katz set up Barack's speech -- yes, America, Communists Carl and Marilyn
set it up -- in 2002, that weak-ass "I'm against Dumb Wars." Carl's
delusion that setting up the speech or that pro-war speech was anything
to be proud of is right up there on the absurdity chart with Drew
Westen helping compose Barack's 2008 faux race speech and then Drew
rushed around online to praise the speech forgetting to note his own
input. Only the careful listeners will note how Carl's still
attempted to get back for every real and imagined slight over the last
forty or so years. I thought Eric Alterman's recent media appearences
had set the standard for radio bitchy -- where Alterman was insisting
that Communists betrayed the left during the McCarthy period because
liberals were telling the truth but, Alterman insisted, Communists were
lying. Enter Carl.
Carl's voting for Barack again, he rushes to explain. Even when Matthew
notes the assassination of US citizens, the attack on the Constitution
and so much more. So Barack can again count on the the bourgeoisie
Communist support (there are real Communists with real ethics in the US
-- Carl doesn't associated with any of those people). Carl does the
turkey trot down memory lane on Barack, "Me and 8 Acorn ladies
interviewed him for The New Party." The New Party was a Chicago
Communist Party front 'fusion' party and you can find criticism of it
and its lackey ways -- Carl's always been a lackey -- in this Green Party piece from 1996 written by Hank Chapot. "And then Marilyn Katz and I sat him up to give that first anti-war speech," he brags.
Barack Obama is a corporatist and we've said that all along. He's an
imperialist as well. I thought Carl Davidson was the one who spread the
rumor that Barack was a Socialist (again, that is a false rumor). Carl
swears it wasn't him. Elaine and I remember Carl doing that.
Clearly, the US government has cloned Carl Davidson and that may be the
scariest news of the day, dozens of Carls running through the US -- well
lumbering. Dozens of Carls insisting on action . . . after Barack gets
four more years. Dozens of Carls whoring as only he can do. Truly
scary.
Swanson specifically pointed to the recent New York Times article
that described the drone killings by President Obama. "If somehow it
had been revealed that Obama was really George W. Bush in disguise, we
would have had millions of people surrounding and protesting at the
White House. Somehow, we've imagined that when Obama does this, he
somehow is wringing his hands with guilt or that everyone tells
themselves that secretly Obama means well. Or that it's our job to
denounce Mitt Romney because some how he would be even worse. And that's
fatal for us as a country.
"If you can't object to giving someone arbitrary power to kill, if
you can't object to that because you can imagine someone else coming up
will be even worse, then we've really tied both hands behind our back."
You have choices and you make decisions. And don't whine about how
Congress won't stand up for this or that treasured policy/belief you
hold dear if you're not willing to stand up against shredding the
Constitution, or endless wars, or assassinating American citizens or any
of the rest. Don't whine that Congress vote to extend the PATRIOT Act
if you're going to turn around and vote for the person (Barack) who said
the extension was needed. Congress will never vote their convictions
if the electorate refuses to vote their own. Instead, you send a message
that you will tolerate every sell out because you'd rather live in fear
all your life.
Today Baghdad was again slammed by a bombing. And though it happened
this morning in Baghdad (shortly before noon, their time) and though
people in America woke up to the already reported news, the US State
Dept's Mark Toner made it through an afternoon press conference without
ever conveying that the US government extends its sympathies to the
survivors of the attack. The White House also had nothing to say on the
issue. At the United Nations, spokesperson Eduardo del Buey (link is text and audio) noted
the UN Secretary-General's Special Envoy Martin Kobler condemned the
bombings, "He said that these atrocious crimes against the Iraqi people
need to stop and the perpetrators should be brought to justice and he
once more called for all Iraqi's to remain steadfast in the face of
violence." Again, not a word on the tragedy from the Barack Obama
administration.
Kareem Raheem (Reuters) quotes
police officer Ahmed Hassan stating, "It was a powerful explosion, dust
and smoke covered the area. At first, I couldn't see anything, but
then I heard screaming women and children. We rushed with other people
to help . . . the wounded were scattered all around, and there were body
parts on the main street."
Mohammed Tawfeeq (CNN) reports the morning attack was a suicide bomber who attacked "the offices of Shiite religious affairs." Yang Lina (Xinhua) explains, " The
Shiite endowment office is an independent body affiliated to the
government and is responsible for running the Shiite mosques and their
religious properties." Radio Netherlands Worldwide adds,
"The attack comes amid a dispute between Iraq's Shiite and Sunni
endowments, which manage the country's religious landmarks, over a
shrine north of Baghdad, and a protracted political standoff that has
raised sectarian tensions in a country racked by brutal communal
bloodshed from 2006 to 2008." AGI quotes
the deputy director of the endowmen, Sami al-Massudi, stating, "We are
not accusing anyone but we are appealing to the Iraqi people and
especially to the children of our religion to move swiftly to bury the
discord." AFP notes
that the Sunni Endowment headquarters were attacked shortly after by at
least one bombing or mortar attack (the Ministry of the Interior states
it was a roadside bombing) and the Sunnin Endowment spokesperson, Faris
al-Mahdawi, is quoted stating, "We reject and condemn this criminal,
cowardly, fanatical attack. These attacks aim to create divisions
between the Iraqi people. There are dirty hands that are playing
sectarianism, and trying to bring the country back to the years of
violence."
An unnamed hospital source told Alsumaria
early on that 16 corpses were received and 83 injured. The death toll
continued to increase throughout the day. By the end of the day, Reuters noted 26 deaths and one-hundred-and-ninety people injured. ITV carries two photos by Hadi Mizban ( AP) showing the destruction from the bomb.
AP reports
that the injured include Baghdad Health Department's Adel Ahmed who was
at work when the nearby bombing attack took palce and that the ceiling
in the Health Department came loose and hit him in the head. AP offers an slide show presenation on violence since 2003 here. AFP offers a timeline of some of the major violence in the last months.
AFP quotes
a restraunt owner whose first name is Mohammed declaring that, "Maliki
and Allawi are fighting over the government, and we are the victims."
Yes, the political crisis continues. The Journal of Turkish Weekly quotes
Iraqi Vice President Tareq al-Hashemi stating that the reforms have not
come to Iraq, "From my point of view, there are two phases for a
country's transformation. The first one is to erase the dictatorial
regime, and the second one is to make reforms. But Iraq now seems to be
a police state."
Tareq al-Hashemi is a member of Iraqiya. Iraqiya came in first in the
March 2010 parliamentary elections. Nouri's State of Law came in
second. Nouri began targeting Iraqiya (yet again) in the fall of 2011.
In December, he began targeting Iraqiya members al-Hashemi and Saleh
al-Mutlaq. al-Multaq is a Deputy Prime Minister. For telling CNN that
Nouri was becoming a dictator, Nouri began months of trying to have
al-Mutlaq ousted from his position. That move proved fuitlie. But the
crisis continues. This weekend Mohamad Ali Harissi ( AFP) offered:
"The political crisis has reached its highest level since its
beginning, but it is still running within the framework of the
democratic game," Iraqi political analyst Ihsan al-Shammari said.
"The country is paralyzed on all levels; there is a clear political
paralysis paralleled by governmental negligence and a failure of the
legislative authority, while the people are disappointed and afraid of
the security consequences," Shammari said.
Also noted was that Saleh al-Mutlaq was again likening Nouri to a dictator.
Al Rafidayn notes an unnamed UN source explains that the crisis is preventing the appointment of the Independent High Electoral Commission. Back in April,
one day the UN Secretary-General's Special Envoy Martin Kobler was
praising the Independent High Electoral Commission to the United Nations
Security Council and discussing how important it was to the upcoming
provincial elections next year and just days later Nouri was having
Farah al-Haidari and Karim al-Tamimi arrested. Karim al-Tamimi
serves on the commission while Faraj al-Haidari is the head of the
commission.
How outrageous were the arrests? That month Al Mada reported
that Moqtada al-Sadr declared that the arrests were indications that
Nouri al-Maliki might be attempting to delay the elections or call them
off all together. He makes it clear that the the arrest needs to be
based on eveidence and not on some whim of Nouri's and that it shouldn't
be done because Nouri desires to "postpone or call off the
election." The provincial elections are not in the distant way off
future. They're supposed to take place next year. At the start of next
year. Which means that the Commission has a great deal of work to do
that it needs to be doing right now. So possibly Moqtada was correct in
April that this was an effort by Nouri to delay the elections.
The continued political crisis is impacting Iraqi life on all
levels. For example, that oil law that Nouri agreed to pass back in
2007? (It was a White House benchmark -- remember those? -- and Nouri
agreed to them.) Never passed. Good in that it helped prevent the
theft of Iraqi oil, bad in that everything's still up in the air because
no alternative ever got passed. Iraq's economy is completely dependent
upon oil at this point. Last January, Ahmed Rasheed (Reuters) reported,
"The political crisis engulfing Iraq's power-sharing government
threatens to further delay a landmark draft of its long-delayed oil law
-- five years after the first version was submitted to parliament. [. .
.] The first hydrocarbon draft law was agreed by Iraq's diverse
politcal blocs in 2007, but its approval has been held back by
infighting among Sunni, Shi'ite and Kurdish political groups, worrying
investors seeking more guarantees for the industry." A month later, Kadhim Ajrash and Nayla Razzouk (Bloomberg News) were reporting:
Iraq's proposed energy law, intended to spur foreign investment in the world's fifth-largest holder of oil deposits, will be delayed for the rest of this year due to political divisions, the prime minister's top adviser said.
The draft law, held up since 2005, may resolve a dispute about oil
revenue and sovereignty between the central government and the country's
semi-autonomous Kurds that has blocked an agreement with Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM),
Thamir Ghadhban said in an interview in Baghdad. Kurdish authorities in
northern Iraq angered the government by signing a separate contract
with Exxon, which operates one of the nation's largest oil fields.
Nouri's failure -- in two terms now -- to get oil legislation passed is telling of what extreme failure he is. Jen Alic (OilPrice.com) sums
up last week's big news on Iraqi oil and gas, "Iraq's latest energy
auction was a flop, and while major international companies balked at
everything from unattractive contract terms to security concerns, the
failure of the auction highlights how the struggle for power between
north and south is shaping the future of energy in the region and
beyond. " Prashant Rao (AFP) adds:
Iraq's oil ministry painted the bid round as a success, with one
official arguing that a success rate of 25 percent was a "good result."
Analysts, however, disagreed.
"It was not a success," said Ruba Husari, editor of
www.iraqoilforum.com. "It was not a success because the main aim of Bid
Round Four was to find gas and develop it."
On the topic of oil, Press TV reports:
Elaborating on his tour
of Iraq upon his return to Tehran Sunday afternoon, Rostam Qasemi
described his separate talks with top Iraqi officials, including Prime
Minister Nouri al-Maliki, Oil Minister Abdulkareem Liaybi and Vice
President Hossain al-Shahrestani, as satisfactory and said discussions
went well and produced agreements on expanding oil and gas trade and
collaborations, Shana reported on Monday.
A little better than that, according to Bloomberg News, " Iraq
and Iran said they will take a common position on Opec's production
policy when the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries meets this
month." With legal charges of price fixing have been filed in
DC last month by the right-wing Freedom Watch, I'm not really sure it's a
good time for OPEC members to be bragging about their work to determine
things outside of meetings.
Sunday Bloomberg reported
Iraq got Iran's support in their campaign to grab the OPEC
secretary-general position. And it apparently only cost Iraq $117
million in US dollars -- that's the amount Nayla Razzouk (Bloomberg News) reports Nouri's agreed to pay Iran "to reconstruct the sewage system in the northern Iraqi city of Kirkuk." Qassim Abdul-Zahra and Brian Murphy (AP) report,
"Shiite powerhouse Iran appears desperate to save the patchwork
administration it helped create in late 2010 to pull Iraq out of its
last major political crisis. Tehran is calling in favors among its
allied factions in Iraq, and exerting its significant religious and
commercial influence to try to block al-Maliki's opponents from getting a
no-confidence motion."
AFP notes
that Moqtada issued a statement yesterday about Nouri, "We say,
complete your (good work) and announce your resignation, for the sake of
the people . . . and for the sake of partners."
How did it get to this? A possible no-confidence vote in Nouri?
Nouri's political slate was State of Law. It came in second in the
March 2010 elections. Iraqiya, led by Ayad Allawi, came in first.
Eight months of gridlock followed those elections (Political Stalemate
I) as a result of Nouri refusing to honor the Constitution and his
belief that -- with the backing of Iran and the White House -- he could
bulldoze his way into a second term. The Erbil Agreement allowed
Political Stalemate I to end. Nouri's refusal to honor the agreement
created the ongoing Political Stalemate II. Marina Ottaway and Danial
Kaysi's [PDF format warning] " The State Of Iraq"
(Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) notes the events since
mid-December as well as what kicked off Political Stalemate II:
Within days of the official ceremonies marking the end of the U.S.
mission in Iraq, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki moved to indict Vice
President Tariq al-Hashemi on terrorism charges and sought to remove
Deputy Prime Minister Saleh al-Mutlaq from his position, triggering a
major political crisis that fully revealed Iraq as an unstable,
undemocractic country governed by raw competition for power and barely
affected by institutional arrangements. Large-scale violence
immediately flared up again, with a series of terrorist attacks against
mostly Shi'i targets reminiscent of the worst days of 2006.
But there is more to the crisis than an escalation of violence. The
tenuous political agreement among parties and factions reached at the
end of 2010 has collapsed. The government of national unity has stopped
functioning, and provinces that want to become regions with autonomous
power comparable to Kurdistan's are putting increasing pressure on the
central government. Unless a new political agreement is reached soon,
Iraq may plunge into civil war or split apart.
The Erbil Agreement allowed Nouri to have a second term as prime
minister. That was a concession other political blocs made. In
exchange, Nouri made concessions as well. These were written up and
signed off on. But once Nouri got his second term, he refused to honor
the Erbil Agreement. Since the summer of 2011, the Kurds have been
calling for a return to the Erbil Agreement. Iraqiya and Moqtada
al-Sadr joined that call. As April drew to a close, there was a big meet-up in Erbil
with various political blocs participating. Nouri al-Maliki was not
invited. Among those attending were KRG President Massoud Barzani, Ayad
Allawi, Moqtada al-Sadr, Iraqi President Jalal Talabani and Speaker of
Parliament Osama al-Nujaifi. Since December 21st, Talabani and
al-Nujaifi have been calling for a national convention to resolve the
political crisis.
Nouri spent the first two months dismissing the need for one, arguing
that it shouldn't include everyone, arguing about what it was called,
saying it should just be the three presidencies -- that would Jalal
Talabani, Nouri al-Maliki and Osama al-Nujaifi -- and offering many more
road blocs. As March began, Nouri's new excuse was that it had to wait
until after the Arab League Summit (March 29th). The weekend before
the summit, Talabani forced the issue by announcing that the convention
would be held April 5th. Nouri quickly began echoing that publicly.
However, April 4th it was announced the conference was off. Nouri's
State of Law took to the press to note how glad they were about that. Shakir Noori (Gulf News) offers:
A member of the Iraqi List, MP Ahmad Al Masary, said: "If things get
to the process of withdrawal of confidence from Al Maliki, the required
number of no-confidence votes are available, even some members of the
ruling National Alliance agree with this decision." Thus, the National
Alliance has two options: either to respond positively and allow the
government to proceed in executing this agreement or allow the coalition
to nominate a substitute for Al Maliki and form a new government headed
by the alternative candidate.
But Nouri has had and still has another option: implement the Erbil Agreement.
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